Has anyone looked into whether the ARG folks have been trading at Intrade in the last 24 hours? Anyone with an early peek at their poll could have made a fortune. This is the chart for Clinton winning the South Dakota primary:
Maybe it’s a bogus poll, and they were just trying to make a little money by gaming the futures markets…
Do you have any idea what the Intrade volumes are in dollars? How much is really at stake? Would it be cheap for a campaign to keep it’s price high as a way to try to build momentum (which no longer seems to exist anyway)?
It looks like 764 shares of Clinton winning South Dakota were traded yesterday (I’m assuming that’s what the “volume” part of the chart means, although I suppose it could mean 764 trades were made, regardless of how many shares were bought and sold in each trade). Previously days were much, much lower — under 100. For winning the nomination, it looks like 5,000 to 10,000 was normal volume, with occasional spikes up in the 20,000 or 30.000 range. Again, I’m assuming this is number of shares bought/sold, not number of transactions…
And a share pays off $1, right?
I guess. Honestly, I don’t really understand the mechanics of the trading…
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