A different take on South Dakota

Differing from the ARG numbers showing a huge Clinton lead, the number-cruncher at FiveThirtyEight.com (who I gather has been on the money in other projections, based entirely on demographic data and not on polls) projects an Obama victory by 5 points in South Dakota, although he seems a bit unsure because SD is “rather idiosyncratic, in ways that tend to perplex the model.” As for the ARG numbers, his considered judgment is that “something like the ARG scenario seems completely batshit crazy to me.”

The blogger at FiveThirtyEight.com recently unmasked himself as a Baseball Prospectus writer and analyst, so as you might expect the site is full of stats and charts and analysis that tend to make my eyes glaze over, but could be a funhouse for anyone more statistically inclined.

Now if he could just tell us who will win in November so we can all stop stressing out for the next five months, that would be useful.

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2 responses to “A different take on South Dakota

  1. Idiosyncratic it turned out to be. Look at the map of states the two Democrats won, and South Dakota is an island of Clintonism in the broad Western expanse of Obamaland…

  2. As Mr. 538 pointed out last night, the final result was exactly at the midpoint between his numbers and the ARG numbers. So both approaches came out looking about equally unreliable…

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